Bank of Papua New Guinea’s Role in Managing the PNG Economy.
The Hon. Peter O’Neill CMG, Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, Ministers
from the Australian Government and Papua New Guinea, colleagues and
distinguished quests.
In 2015 the PNG economy was planned to be the fastest growing economy in the
world. While we might have lost this title, GDP is still projected to grow by 11%,
and the current account is starting to show a substantive positive balance. The
completion of the LNG project has already had positive impact on investor
confidence. In addition to Exxon Mobil which has a long time interest in our oil
and gas industry, some very well known large corporation like Total and Rapsol,
have entered the oil and gas industry and are operating in the country. Added to
this are companies operating in the other resource industries like Barrick,
Newcrest, Harmony, PanAust, Anglo American and others. This is a clear vote of
confidence in the Papua New Guinea economy.
The expected development of the Elk Antelope Gas Project by Total, the
Wafi/Golpu Gold project by Newcrest and Harmony, the Frida River Copper and
Gold project by PanAust, the Star Mountains Copper and Gold exploration by Anglo American and Highlands Pacific, and the first ever experiment by Nautilus
Minerals to mine gold from the sea floor, are placing Papua New Guinea in the
forefront of countries engaged in resource exploration and developments. The
confidence of such a large number of foreign investors in the country is enhancing
the reputation of the country as a safe and attractive place to invest in.
In the last few months I met many investors, and all of them stressed that it is
crucial for the future development of the resource sectors to maintain the strong
commitment to the democratic principles Papua New Guinea is known to have,
political stability, a transparent and stable taxation regime, and an independent
legal system that protects the property rights of investors.
I want to add the Bank of Papua New Guinea’s very strong support of this
Government’s increased spending and focus on Health and Education, to improve
the very low social development indicators the country is ranked at the present.
Spending on infrastructure is the other area this Government is concentrating on,
and is very important to enable the development of the rural areas, where a great
majority of the population of around 80% lives. As a developing economy, the
development aspirations are huge. To achieve these development aspiration the
35% debt/GDP ratio need to be reviewed and adjusted.
The source of economic development and growth is narrow. It does not cover the
great majority of the rural population. The Bank of Papua New Guinea is
advocating the development of the agricultural sector, both farming and
processing, for many years. I stressed repeatedly the need to introduce advanced
technologies and innovative systems in our agricultural sector. Just very recently,
the introduction of modern technologies in the agriculture sector enabled Papua
New Guinea to reduce the cost of production, and have its first ever export of
vegetables to overseas market.
We acknowledge the past contributions of our major development partners,
specifically the Australian and the Japanese Governments, the Multinational
Institutions like the Asian Development Bank, both the World Bank and the
European Union and their subsidiaries, in our development effort, and urged them to align their strategies to support this Government’s development
priorities.
One of the immediate needs of the country is project funding, especially in
agriculture. As a result of very big losses incurred in the late 80th and early 90th of
the previous century, banks are reluctant to advance loans to new project in the
sector. The Bank of Papua New Guinea in close consultation and cooperation with
the Government and the commercial banks will have to resolve it, to ensure that
financial resources needed for the development of this very important sector are
accommodated.
The liquidity in the banking system is very high. It is time to find ways to utilize it,
for the development needs of the nation, both in the resource and non-resource
industries. We look forward to implementation of the new legislation on Capital
markets passed by Parliament, to develop the capital markets in PNG.
We have a very long way to go with Financial Inclusion of the great majority of the
rural population. Like many other developing countries, the Bank of Papua New
Guinea embarked on a very intensive financial education and awareness program.
We aim to reach each and every one in the country and enable them to be
included in the financial system. With today’s technology of internet and mobile
phone banking, it can be done at a reduced cost that even the low income
earner’s can afford.
The Bank of Papua New Guinea last year introduced an advanced Payments and
Clearing System called Kina Automated Transfer System (KATS) to expedite the
clearing of all transactions, and reduce the cost of all interbank activities. Since
the introduction of KATS, we have seen reduction in fraudulent cheques, and
increase in direct transfers between accounts. The next phase of our focus is on
utilizing anti-money laundering module in KATS and development of a Central
Switch.
Papua New Guinea is not an offshore center. It did not face problems with money
laundering, from illegal flows of drugs and human trafficking. To ensure that we
adhere to best International Standards and practices, the Department of Justice and Attorney General, the Police and the Bank of Papua New Guinea, in very close cooperation with the financial system, introduced legislation and regulations, to
ensure that we remain free of this vises as well as other money laundering
players. One important component of this legislation is the establishment of
Financial Analysis and Supervision Unit (FASU) in BPNG and separation of
responsibilities between FASU and FIU (with Police). The FASU is now established
at the BPNG.
Papua New Guinea has a floating exchange rate regime. As in many countries, the
Bank of Papua New Guinea is intervening in the market to smooth uncalled sharp
movements in the currency, without influencing the trend. Until mid 2012, the
high International commodity prices of mineral and agriculture exports, combined
with the large inflow of foreign currency for the construction of the PNG LNG
project by Exxon Mobil, resulted in a continuous appreciation of the Kina. From
mid 2012, the decline in commodity prices and the slowdown of expenditure on
the construction of the LNG project, reduced the foreign currency inflows, and the
exchange rate started to depreciate. The official exchange rate depreciated from
US48 cents in 2012 to US43 Cents to the Kina, in mid 2014. In spite of BPNG’s
continuous intervention in the market, the banks decided to transact outside the
official market, at exchange rates that ranged from US$39 buy to US$33 sell rate.
It was clear that the BPNG could not agree to this margin of 600 basis points, and
in June 2014, it used its regulatory powers to introduce a Trading Band of 150
basis points (75 above and 75 below) the official market rate.
In March 2015, the BPNG announced further measures relating to domestic and
offshore foreign currency accounts, Vostro accounts for foreign banks and
remittances. This follows our findings of unusual transactions conducted through
these accounts. The exchange rate is continuing to devalue, and is at the present
US35.95 cents to the Kina. It can be assumed that this trend might continue, at a
much slower pace, until the end of this year, when we expect the exchange rate
to stabilize. We are working with the Government to look at other sources of
foreign currency to address the structural imbalance between supply and demand
for foreign exchange.
The level of foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable level of US$2.0 billion,
sufficient to cover 7.0 months of total imports and 10.0 months of non mining
and petroleum imports. Looking forward into the next five years, our projections
show an increase in the foreign currency inflows, and increase in the reserves.
We will deal with these inflows through the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) which
has been recently approved by Parliament.
The Sovereign Wealth Fund will have a positive effect of stabilizing the flows into
the budget. Many see it as the solution to the Dutch Disease phenomena, of
appreciation of the domestic currency and its impact on the traditional export
sectors. While the SWF can be used as a stabilizer of the local currency, the best
and most efficient solution is to develop the traditional domestic export
industries, which in Papua New Guinea is the agriculture sector. Another area
that should be supported consistent with Government policy is the SME sector
dealing with light manufacturing of imported goods.
Once the education system will improve the technical and technological traits of
the population, the development of other advanced industries will come on
stream. The time will come when we will be in a state to diversify our rural based
economy, to advanced industries.
Thank you all and God Bless